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Expected goals stats tell the very real story after Burnley 1 Newcastle 4

It is widely believed that Expected Goals is the best way to measure how well Premier League clubs are playing in a given match.

To better see how teams are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric can give you a better idea of ​​how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to calculate how many goals should be scored in a match.

Each individual shot is assigned an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors such as distance to goal, type of shot and number of defenders present influencing the value.

The higher the xG of a given shot, the greater the chance that a goal will be scored with that shot.

The xG value of each shot in a match is then used to calculate the expected goals in a given match.

So instead of just the usual basic stats of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals takes into account where the shot was taken from, how good the chance was and if there were any defenders in the way, etc.

Here are Saturday’s Premier League matches, with Premier League expected goals stats (and actual final score in brackets) from Understat:

Arsenal 3.91 vs Bournemouth 0.47 (3-0)

Brentford 0.81 vs Fulham 1.46 (0-0)

Sheff Utd 2.49 v Bos 1.94 (1-3)

Burnley 1.29 vs Newcastle United 4.26 (1-4)

Man City 4.53 v Wolves 0.40 (5-1)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, even when the focus is on expected goals stats.

Yesterday’s winning teams had the greater expected goals stats, bar one exception to the rule.

While Man City, Arsenal and Newcastle United asserted their superiority, Sheffield United failed to capitalize on their chances, as was the case at St James’ Park when they deserved a few goals, not just the one. Their expected goals superiority wasn’t huge yesterday (2.49 to 1.94), but Forest’s 3-1 win sums up which side took their chances and which didn’t.

Man City destroyed Wolves 5-1 and had a hugely dominant expected goals stat of 4.53 to Wolves’ 0.40.

Guardiola’s side are the only side to score more goals on Saturday and also the only side to surpass Newcastle’s 4.26 expected goals statistic, although Burnley’s 1.29 statistic suggests the home side probably deserved their consolation goal at the end .

Statistics via BBC Sport:

Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 – Saturday 4 May 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Wilson 19, Longstaff 35, Bruno 40, Isak 55

Burnley:

O’Shea 86

(Halftime statistics in brackets)

Possess was Burnley 46% (52%) Newcastle 54% (48%)

Total shots were Burnley 17 (8) Newcastle 23 (15)

Shots on target were Burnley 5 (3) Newcastle 11 (6)

Corners were Burnley 4 (3) Newcastle 11 (5)

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Newcastle team vs Burnley:

Dubravka, Livramento, Krafth, Burn, Hall, Longstaff (Joelinton 77), Bruno, J Murphy (Anderson 69), Gordon (Ritchie 85), Isak (Almiron 77), Wilson (Barnes 69)

Unused subs:

Pope, Dummett, White, A Murphy

(Embarrassing – BBC Sport pundit comments before AND then on Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 reality – Read HERE)

(This is excellent from Vincent Kompany after a thrashing of Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 – Read HERE)

(Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 – Instant Newcastle fan/writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Newcastle United class blow away the Clarets – Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 – Read HERE)

Newcastle United fixtures now confirmed for the rest of the season:

Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)

Wednesday 15 May 2024 – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Sunday 19 May 2024 – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)

(On the last day of the season, live TV matches will be selected closer to the day, but all 10 PL matches will take place on the same day)

Wednesday 22 May 2024 – Tottenham v Newcastle (at MCG – Melbourne Cricket Ground)

Friday 24 May 2024 – A-League All Stars team v Newcastle (at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne)