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CSU predicts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 Category 3 or higher


CSU predicts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes this year

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Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday morning, June 11.

The news has not improved, but at least not worse.

Forecasters continue to predict an “extremely active Atlantic hurricane season.”

Interactive map: Track active storms

Tropical Watch, June 11: What is NHC tracking now?

“We expect a well-above-average probability of major hurricane landfall along the continental coastline of the United States and in the Caribbean,” the Colorado State University announcement said.

A major hurricane is a Category 3 hurricane or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 110 miles per hour.

Every forecast for the 2024 season has predicted an above-normal season, with AccuWeather forecasters even going so far as to say it’s possible the 2020 record of 24 named storms could be broken.

CSU has updated its forecast for the 2024 hurricane season

Colorado State University’s June 11 forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is the same as the forecast released on April 13, which calls for:

  • 23 named storms
  • 11 hurricanes
  • 5 major hurricanes

“We expect La Niña conditions to develop toward the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will likely result in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” CSU said.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic Basin – which includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico – remain at record warm levels.

These extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide an environment for hurricane formation and intensification.

What are the chances of at least one major hurricane hitting the US, Florida?

CSU predicts:

  • Entire continental US coastline: 62%
    • The average from 1880–2020 is 43%
  • US East Coast including Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key): 34%
    • The average from 1880–2020 is 21%
  • Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key) west to Brownsville: 42%
    • The average from 1880–2020 is 27%

How does Colorado State University’s latest prediction compare to previous predictions?

In April, Colorado State University published its first forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. That forecast called for:

  • 23 named storms
  • 11 hurricanes
  • 5 major hurricanes

Hurricane season forecasts released for the 2024 season

National Hurricane Center: The National Hurricane Center predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NHC forecasters predict:

  • 17-25 named storms
  • 8-13 Hurricanes
  • 4-7 major hurricanes

AccuWeather: AccuWeather predicts this season has the potential to break 2020’s record of 30 named storms in a single season.

  • 20-25 named storms
  • 8-12 Hurricanes
  • 4-7 major hurricanes
  • 4-6 direct American consequences

Why is the 2024 hurricane season expected to be so busy?

Forecasters were on edge as early as February, predicting it would be an active season due to the combination of La Niña and record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Basin. The two together pack a powerful punch when it comes to hurricanes.

“La Niña typically increases hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean,” Colorado state forecasters said. La Niña lacks the wind shear associated with El Niño, which helps to tear apart developing storms or keep others from becoming more intense.

“Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean are currently at record warm levels and are expected to remain well above average throughout the upcoming hurricane season.”

Those warm Atlantic waters provide an environment favorable for both the development and intensification of hurricanes, CSU said.

What is the average number of hurricanes in a hurricane season?

Based on averages from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14.4 named storms, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The average number of hurricanes is 7.2 and the average number of major hurricanes is 3.2, according to CSU. That makes the predictions for 2024 well above average.

The first named storm usually forms in mid to late June, the first hurricane usually forms in early to mid August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September, although there have been exceptions to all of these.

Countdown clock: When does the 2024 hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1. It ends on November 30, although storms can and have occurred outside these dates.

Hurricane Tracker: How to Track Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Can’t see the map? Open in a new browser.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, the Hurricane Center said.

The Florida sales tax holiday ends on June 14

“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall to make this an active season,” CSU said.

“Preparations must be made for each season, regardless of how much activity is forecast.”

Residents still have a few days to take advantage of Florida’s first disaster preparedness tax exemption, which ends on Friday, June 14.

A second two-week period runs from August 24 to September 6.